Everything else on this site branches from one number and the discipline built around checking it. These five pieces, in this order, give you the whole shape in under an hour.
Start with the one number everything else refers back to: a quadrillion dollars in global GDP by 2040, and the sixteen named forces — AI, energy, demographics, trade rewiring, and more — that would have to compound together to get there. This is the North Star, not a forecast. Read this first or nothing else will have a spine to hang on.
The thesis turned into an actual model: five compounding growth engines, an honest sensitivity range instead of one confident number, and Six Filters naming the specific human ways the whole thing could stall. This is where "a big number" becomes something you could actually build a plan against. (Its companion, Part B, is a scenario check on this exact model — worth reading once you've finished the five stops here.)
The full history in one place: how the number became a thesis, then an ongoing journal, then a model, then a commitment to be checked before anyone forces the issue — including the part where an earlier draft got the framing wrong and was corrected in public rather than quietly fixed. Read this to understand the method, not just the conclusions.
Every specific, dated call this research programme has made, logged with exactly what would prove it right or wrong — and marked honestly as "Watching," not backfilled with invented wins. This is the page that separates a research operation willing to be checked from one that only talks about being willing.
From here, the rest of the site branches by interest: the Compass series for market-by-market valuation calls, Hidden Markets for the ten-country deep dives, Startup Ideas for what's given away free, and the full Letters catalogue for everything in between. The Archive's filters get you there fastest.
If you only have ten minutes: read the $1Q Thesis and Letter 127. That's the number and the method. Everything else is detail in service of those two things.