NGE Stock Market Compass · Issue 03

US at 25–30×. Hong Kong at 10×. Germany at 14×. The valuation spread is the widest in a decade. The long-horizon investor ignoring 14 other markets because one dominates the news is leaving compounding on the table.

Read the Four Lenses Framework → L55

NGE Letters · Country Research

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The Great Repricing

L53 · US Buffett Indicator

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Germany's Hidden Startups

L57 · DAX deep dive

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The Four Lenses

L55 · Value wealth cash FX

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India Education Transform

L62 · India structural story

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The One-Yuan Lighter

L61 · China manufacturing

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The Coming IPO Wave

L65 · Global pipeline

Central Banks & Macro · 3 Jul 2026

Policy Signals · July 2026

🇺🇸 Federal Reserve

Higher-for-longer. 9 of 18 FOMC officials projecting a hike. Fed funds 3.50–3.75%. PCE inflation 3.6% forecast. Dollar at 2-month high. Rate cuts pushed to Q4 at earliest.

🇪🇺 ECB

Hawkish tilt. Eurozone CPI 3.2% in May — above target. Core 2.5%. ECB language shifting toward possible Q3 hike. EUR/USD 1.08–1.12. German ZEW first positive since Middle East conflict.

🇯🇵 Bank of Japan

0.75% — highest since 1995. Real yields deeply negative. Yen at 155–158. Analysts see 165 if Fed hikes again. JGB market the primary tail risk. Generational policy shift underway.

🇮🇳 RBI

Managed float, robust reserves. INR 84–86. Forex reserves $698.2B. Hormuz normalising = $67B annual saving on import bill. Jio + NSE IPOs: ₹60,000cr absorption test for Q3 2026.

🇨🇳 PBOC

CNY managed toward 6.70. Stimulus expanding. Property investment −16.2% YoY. Tier-1 cities stabilising. AI national champions receiving policy support.

🇬🇧 Bank of England

3.75% — cutting cycle largely complete. GBP strengthened 1.25→1.35 in 2025. Monzo's LSE listing choice is a confidence vote in UK market reform.

🇸🇦 SAMA · 🇦🇪 CBUAE

Both pegged to USD. SAMA supporting Tadawul pipeline (40 applications). CBUAE reserve diversification ongoing. AED peg eliminates FX risk for dollar investors. Gulf growth sustained by Vision 2030 capex.

NGE Compass Read · July 2026

Valuation divergence across 15 markets is the widest in a decade. US at 25–30×. UK, Germany, Hong Kong, Korea at 10–14×. The IPO pipeline — Anthropic, OpenAI, Jio, NSE — will force passive rebalancing across every portfolio with index exposure. Letter 65 maps the full pipeline →

Global IPO Pipeline · 2026

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Parle Products

₹1L cr+ · ~$10.5B

NSE + BSE · Founded 1929 · Parle-G · OFS · Kotak + Axis + HSBC

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Jio Platforms

₹12–13L cr · ~$150B

NSE + BSE · DRHP Jun 2026 · 524M subscribers

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Anthropic

~$900B–$965B