Letter No. 117 July 2026 Tax · Jurisdiction · Offshore

Tax Havens

What they are, why capital flows there, how regulators are fighting back — and whether any of them are actually worth your money.

There is no phrase in finance more misused than "tax haven." A journalist uses it to describe the Cayman Islands. A finance minister uses it to describe Ireland. A campaign group uses it to describe Delaware. They are all technically correct — and all describing something entirely different. Before any investor can think clearly about this subject, the categories must be separated.

There are three distinct things that get collapsed into one label. Zero or near-zero tax jurisdictions — places like the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, or Vanuatu that impose no corporate income tax and exist almost entirely to hold capital. Preferential tax regimes — jurisdictions like Luxembourg, Singapore, the Netherlands, or Ireland that have normal-looking tax systems but offer targeted low rates for specific activities such as holding companies, royalties, or treasury functions. And secrecy jurisdictions — places where the primary attraction is opacity rather than the rate itself, where beneficial ownership is not disclosed and treaty obligations are minimal. The EU blacklist targets the first and third. The second category is where most serious institutional capital actually operates — and it is largely not blacklisted at all.

"The EU blacklist targets jurisdictions that refuse to cooperate with international tax governance. It does not target the jurisdictions where most offshore capital actually sits."

The EU Lists — What They Actually Mean

The EU blacklist contains 11 jurisdictions as of October 2025: American Samoa, Anguilla, Fiji, Guam, Palau, Panama, Russia, Samoa, Trinidad and Tobago, the US Virgin Islands, and Vanuatu. Russia's presence is political. The rest are there because they failed to meet three technical criteria — automatic exchange of tax information, absence of harmful preferential regimes, and implementation of OECD anti-BEPS measures. Being blacklisted has real consequences: EU-funded projects cannot be routed through these jurisdictions, and member states must apply defensive measures including withholding taxes on payments to entities based there.

The grey list — Annex II — contains a further 11 that have made commitments but not yet delivered: Antigua and Barbuda, Belize, British Virgin Islands, Brunei, Eswatini, Greenland, Jordan, Montenegro, Morocco, Seychelles, and Türkiye. The lists are dynamic. Fiji, Samoa, and Trinidad and Tobago are scheduled for removal in February 2026 after remediation. Turks and Caicos Islands and Vietnam will be added. A jurisdiction you structure through today may have a different status in eighteen months.

Why Capital Goes There

Capital flows to low-tax jurisdictions not purely because wealthy people are greedy but because the global tax system is built from overlapping national rules with no coordinating authority, creating gaps that rational actors exploit. Six structural drivers account for most of it.

Tax rate arbitrage. A holding company in the Cayman Islands pays 0% on dividends and capital gains. The same structure in Germany pays 25%+. For a fund managing $500M, the difference over a decade is not marginal. Treaty access. Mauritius has 46 double-taxation agreements. A fund domiciled there can access reduced withholding rates on Indian dividends and African royalties unavailable to a direct holding structure — the DTA network is the real asset, not the tax rate. Regulatory flexibility. Cayman Islands and BVI fund structures operate under lighter frameworks than UK, EU, or US equivalents — lower compliance cost, faster formation, fewer restrictions on investor types. Confidentiality. For high-net-worth individuals in politically unstable home countries, non-disclosure of beneficial ownership is not a luxury — it is a security consideration. Capital controls protection. A holding company in a jurisdiction with full capital convertibility and bilateral investment treaties protects against the controls a home country might impose in a crisis. Legal system quality. Cayman Islands and BVI law is effectively English Common Law administered by experienced commercial courts — predictability that many onshore alternatives cannot match.

The OECD Revolution — Pillar Two

The most significant change to the offshore landscape in a generation arrived on January 1, 2024: the OECD's Pillar Two global minimum tax. Multinational enterprises with revenues above €750 million are now subject to a minimum effective tax rate of 15% in every jurisdiction where they operate. If a country taxes profits below 15%, the parent's home jurisdiction collects the top-up tax. Over 140 countries have agreed to the framework.

This is genuinely transformative for large corporate users of zero-tax jurisdictions — the arbitrage for large multinationals has been substantially eliminated. What Pillar Two does not change: fund structures, individual investors, and businesses below the €750M threshold. For most private investors and smaller institutions, the mechanics of offshore structuring remain largely intact — though under increasing compliance pressure.

Are They Good Places to Invest?

If the question is whether to domicile a fund structure in an established offshore centre — Cayman Islands, Mauritius, Luxembourg, Singapore — the answer for the right type of capital is yes. These are mature, legally sophisticated jurisdictions tested over decades. Mauritius managing FDI stock of over $40 billion. Cayman Islands hosting over 14,000 funds. Luxembourg as the world's second-largest fund domicile after the US. These are not accidents — they are the product of sustained institutional investment in legal infrastructure, regulatory expertise, and treaty networks.

If the question is whether to invest capital into the blacklisted jurisdictions themselves — Panama, Vanuatu, Palau — the answer is generally no, for reasons that have nothing to do with tax. They are on the blacklist precisely because their governance and institutional quality are below the standard required for investor protection. Panama has real economic assets — the Canal, logistics, real estate — but persistent FATF concerns are not cosmetic issues.

If the question is whether individual investors should use offshore structures for personal tax planning — the answer depends entirely on your home jurisdiction's rules, your tax residency status, and whether the structure is fully disclosed. Using an offshore structure is legal in most OECD countries only if properly declared. The line between tax avoidance (legal) and tax evasion (criminal) has moved significantly as automatic information exchange has expanded across 120+ jurisdictions.

Ten Jurisdictions — The NGE View

Jurisdiction EU Status NGE View
Cayman IslandsNot listedLegitimate for fund structures. 14,000+ funds. English law.
MauritiusCompliantStrong. 46 DTAs. India-Africa gateway. See New Avenues No. 04.
SingaporeCompliantTier 1. Safe, sophisticated, expensive. Asia's premier centre.
LuxembourgEU memberStandard for EU fund domiciliation. World's 2nd largest.
UAE (Dubai)Compliant0% personal tax. Legitimate for genuine relocators. Growing fast.
GeorgiaCompliant1% flat tax. 0% capital gains. See New Avenues No. 01.
IrelandEU member12.5% corporate. Standard for US companies accessing EU.
British Virgin IslandsGrey listAdequate for holding structures. Under regulatory pressure.
PanamaBlacklistedAvoid for structuring. Real estate only with full legal advice.
SeychellesGrey listDeclining attractiveness. Use with caution.

The UAE — The New Mainstream

Ten years ago, Dubai appealed predominantly to Gulf nationals and a certain tier of global high-net-worth individuals. Today it is the fastest-growing destination for tax residency among European entrepreneurs, tech founders, and fund managers. No personal income tax. Corporate tax of 9% introduced in 2023 — with 0% for qualifying free zone entities — but still among the lowest of any significant economy. The Golden Visa offers 10-year renewable residency for property investment from AED 2 million (~$545,000). The UAE is not on the EU blacklist, is fully FATF-compliant, and has automatic information exchange with over 120 jurisdictions.

For a European entrepreneur who physically relocates and genuinely establishes tax residency in Dubai, the saving is real and fully legal. The key word is genuinely. Registering a company in the UAE while living and working in Paris does not make you a UAE tax resident — and European exit tax enforcement has become rigorous. The structure only works if the substance is real.

The Risks — Stated Plainly

Regulatory risk. The direction of travel globally is toward more transparency, not less. OECD's Common Reporting Standard, Pillar Two, FATCA, and the EU's DAC6 and DAC7 directives have collectively made it far harder to maintain undisclosed offshore structures. Any structure built on the assumption that current information-exchange gaps will persist is building on sand. Plan for the world as it will be in ten years.

Reputational risk. Offshore structures that are legal can still be damaging. The Panama Papers and Pandora Papers created significant political and commercial problems for individuals whose offshore holdings were entirely legal but not disclosed publicly. For anyone in public life, a listed company, or a regulated industry, the reputational dimension must be weighed alongside the financial one.

Substance risk. A holding company with no employees, no real decision-making, and no genuine economic activity is increasingly vulnerable to challenge by the home jurisdiction of its owners. Substance requirements are now embedded in EU, UK, and most OECD jurisdictions' domestic law. A structure with no substance is not a structure — it is a liability.

Currency risk. Offshore structures often hold assets in one currency, report in another, and distribute in a third. Currency movement over a five or ten-year holding period can eliminate the tax saving entirely. A 15% rate saving on a structure where the base currency depreciates 20% against your home currency is not a net gain.

"Over 120 jurisdictions now automatically exchange financial account information every year. The era of unexplained offshore wealth is over for citizens of OECD countries."

The Verdict

The cleanest offshore plays are the ones that are simultaneously good investments and good jurisdictions — where you access a genuinely strong financial centre rather than purely chasing a rate. This is why Mauritius, Singapore, Luxembourg, and the UAE dominate institutional capital flows. The tax efficiency is a feature of a broadly excellent institutional environment, not the entire point.

The riskiest plays are structures in jurisdictions whose primary selling point is opacity or regulatory weakness — where the business case disappears the moment full transparency is required. If a structure only works in the dark, it does not work.

For most individual investors, the most productive question is not "how do I use a tax haven" but "which jurisdiction's domestic rules most favour my situation." The answer increasingly points to places like Georgia, Mauritius, or UAE residency — well-governed jurisdictions with structures that favour capital, fully disclosed, fully legal. That is exactly what the New Avenues series has been identifying from the beginning. Not havens. Avenues.

Low tax disclosed and legal is a strategic advantage. Hidden tax is a time bomb. The window to make that distinction is closing fast.

Pawan Bhatia

Founder, NextGen Economics · Bangalore, India · July 2026
Sources: EU Council Non-Cooperative Jurisdictions List October 2025 · OECD Pillar Two Framework · FATF · OECD Common Reporting Standard · Mauritius FSC · UAE Ministry of Finance Corporate Tax Guide 2023.
Not legal or tax advice. Offshore structures require qualified counsel in your specific jurisdiction.