NGE · New Avenues For Investments · No. 14 · July 2026
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Uzbekistan
Central Asia's fastest reform story, still priced like nobody has noticed.
7.7%GDP Growth, 2025
$150BFDI Attracted Since 2017
3xUzNIF IPO Oversubscription
Top 5Global Gold Reserves
Reform TrajectoryFASTEST IN REGION ✓
Currency ConvertibilityLIBERALISED 2017 ✓
Capital RepatriationUNRESTRICTED SINCE 2017 ✓
Reserve Coverage16 MONTHS IMPORTS ✓
International Listing AccessLSE DUAL LISTING LIVE ✓
Institutional Track RecordSHORT (POST-2016) ↑
SOE ReformIN PROGRESS
LiquidityTSE THIN, UzNIF LSE-ACCESSIBLE
Geography & Context

Deng Xiaoping, Applied to the Silk Road

Uzbekistan is one of only two double-landlocked countries on Earth — bordered entirely by other landlocked nations — yet it is the most populous country in Central Asia at 38 million, with a median age of just 27. Until September 2016, it was ruled by Islam Karimov under a closed, import-substitution economic model that kept currency conversion restricted and borders periodically shut. Since Shavkat Mirziyoyev took over, the comparison analysts increasingly reach for is Deng Xiaoping's China: a rapid, top-down liberalisation of a previously closed economy, starting from a very low base.

The results are not subtle. Since 2017, the economy has nearly tripled in size. GDP grew 7.7% in 2025 and is projected at 6.7% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027 by the Asian Development Bank — among the fastest sustained growth rates anywhere in Asia, driven by services (up 14.7% in 2025), construction (up 14.2%), and a genuine industrial base, not commodity price luck alone.

The Reform Signal Investors Actually Trust

The IPO That Proved the Story Is Real

On May 13, 2026, the Uzbekistan National Investment Fund (UzNIF) — a portfolio of 13 state-owned enterprises managed by Franklin Templeton — completed a dual listing on the London and Tashkent Stock Exchanges, raising over $600 million through the sale of a 31% stake. The offering was oversubscribed three times over, and Uzbek officials described it as the largest London Stock Exchange IPO in five years from any single country. This matters more than the dollar figure: it is the same privatisation-through-international-listing playbook Kazakhstan ran years earlier, now being executed by its neighbour with immediate international demand.

LSE / TSE: UzNIF
Uzbekistan National Investment Fund

Dual-listed, Franklin Templeton-managed exposure to 13 of Uzbekistan's largest state enterprises — the single most accessible way for an international investor to buy the entire reform story in one instrument.

Pending IPO
Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company (NMMC)

Uzbekistan's leading gold and uranium producer, expected to follow UzNIF toward an international listing — direct equity exposure to a country ranked top-5 globally in gold reserves.

Private, AT1 Bond
Uzbekistan Industrial and Construction Bank (SQB)

A formerly state-run lender restructured into a market-oriented bank, now trading its first-ever AT1 bond above par (103.9) at an 8.4% yield — a genuine fixed-income entry point into the reform programme.

The Balance Sheet Behind the Story

Reserves Nearly Doubled in Sixteen Months

International reserves rose from $41 billion at the end of 2024 to approximately $70.9 billion by May 2026 — covering roughly 16 months of imports and four times the country's short-term external debt. Gold accounts for about 85% of that reserve base, and Uzbekistan's gold holdings now rank 14th globally, ahead of many far larger economies. At the Fifth Tashkent International Investment Forum in mid-2026, 166 agreements worth $43.1 billion were signed in three days, with attendees from 102 countries — evidence the reform story is drawing genuinely global, not just regional, capital.

The Honest Access Picture

UzNIF's London listing is the clean, liquid entry point most international investors will actually use. The domestic Tashkent Stock Exchange itself remains thin — 85 ordinary shares and 38 preferred shares totalling just $9.7 billion in combined market cap as of January 2026 — meaning direct exposure to smaller Uzbek companies beyond the flagship fund and pending mining IPOs is genuinely difficult for a foreign retail investor today.

The Honest Assessment

Real Reform, Genuinely Short Track Record

Uzbekistan's transformation is the most rapid, most convincing reform story in this letter series — a near-tripling of GDP in under a decade, a $150 billion FDI track record, and an oversubscribed international IPO that proves global capital believes it. The honest caveat is time: this is a nine-year story built almost entirely under one leader's reform programme, and the institutional depth that comes from decades of continuity — the kind Georgia or Estonia can point to — simply hasn't had time to accumulate yet.

The Real Limit
A Nine-Year Track Record

The entire reform programme dates to 2016. That is a genuinely short history to underwrite multi-decade capital allocation decisions against, regardless of how strong the recent trajectory looks.

Is This a Trade or a Long-Term Position?

Early-Stage Structural, Priced Like It's Still a Secret

This reads as an early-stage long-term position rather than a trade — the growth rate and reform depth argue for patience, and the still-thin domestic liquidity means position sizing should assume a multi-year holding period rather than tactical entry and exit.

The Verdict

Uzbekistan is doing, visibly and quickly, what Georgia and Kazakhstan each took longer to prove: that a formerly closed, Soviet-legacy economy can genuinely re-rate through reform rather than commodity luck. The UzNIF listing being three-times oversubscribed is the tell — international capital has already started pricing this in, just not by much yet. The risk is entirely about time: nine years of reform is real, but it is not yet a track record in the way a multi-decade one would be.

Pawan Bhatia
Founder, NextGen Economics · Bangalore, India · July 2026
Sources: Asian Development Bank (ADO April 2026) · IVO Capital Partners · Asia Frontier Capital · IndexBox (Fifth Tashkent Investment Forum) · Office of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan · bne IntelliNews.
Not investment advice. All investments carry risk including loss of capital.